Financial and Production Guidance

The production forecast covers:
  1. natural gas production forecast;
  2. crude oil production forecast.

With a view to enhancing stakeholder communication, the Management Board of PGNiG SA presents a financial forecast based on the business plans of PGNiG Group companies and operating assumptions.

The Management Board of Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA (“PGNiG”) announces its natural gas and crude oil production forecast for 2017–2019, replacing the production forecast for 2016–2018 published in Current Report No. 34/2016 of April 15th 2016 and subsequently updated in Current Report No. 98/2016 of October 25th 2016.

Natural gas production forecast for 2017–2019, converted to high-methane gas with a calorific value of 39.5 MJ/m3 (in billion m3)*

  2017 2018 2019
Poland 3.8 3.8 3.9
Foreign markets, including: 0.7 0.7 0.7

Norway

0.5 0.5 0.4

Pakistan

0.2 0.2 0.3
Total 4.5 4.5 4.6

* published in Current Report No.93/2017

The production of natural gas in Poland should remain stable, and will be further increased from 2019 onwards following the tie-in of new wells. The decrease in the forecast output of natural gas in Pakistan at the end of 2017 is attributable to a lower-than-expected rate of production from the Rehman-2 well, brought online in 2017, and the revised schedule of tie-in of new wells.

Crude oil production forecast, including condensate and NGL, for 2017–2019 (‘000 tonnes)*

  2017 2018 2019
Poland 778 820 784
Foreign markets, including: 489 515 450

Norway

489 515 450
Total 1,267 1,335 1,234

* published in Current Report No.93/2017

The change in the forecast volume of crude oil production in Poland in 2017–2018 is due to earlier completion of test production from new wells, which contributed to higher crude oil output in 2017 and resulted in a change of the production forecast for 2018.

As for Norway, the main reasons behind the revision of the hydrocarbon production forecast for 2017–2019 is the delayed launch of production from the Gina Krog field, and the fact that two out of the fifteen wells in the Skarv field have been temporarily taken offline. The impact of these events was partly offset by higher production from other fields and improved consistency of hydrocarbon flows from other wells in the Skarv field.

The data presented above does not include production from the fields planned to be acquired under the PGNiG Group Strategy for 2017–2022, published in Current Report No. 19/2017 of March 13th 2017.

> Current Report No.93/2017 - Natural gas and crude oil production forecast for 2017–2019

> Current Report No.98/2016 - Natural gas and crude oil production forecast for 2016–2018 - update

> Current Report No.34/2016 - Natural gas and crude oil production forecast for 2016–2018

The financial forecast covers:

  1. Consolidated revenue of the PGNiG Group;
  2. Consolidated EBITDA of the PGNiG Group;
  3. Debt/EBIDTA ratio of the PGNiG Group.
 
GK PGNiG 2015 Guidance [PLNbn]* Execution 2015 [PLNbn] Execution [%]
Revenue 37.1 36.5 98%
EBITDA 6.3 6.1 97%

* updated on November 6th 2015 Current Report 81/2015

 

> Current Report No. 10/2016

> Current Report No. 81/2015

> Current Report No. 9/2015

 

GK PGNiG 2014 Guidance [PLNbn] 2014 Execution[PLNbn] Execution [%]
Revenue 32.7 34.3 105%
EBITDA 5.9 6.3 108%


> Current Report No. 24/2014
 

Debt/EBITDA Guidance Execution
2015 < 2.0 1.0
2014 < 2.0 0.9
 

The EBITDA forecast will be monitored by PGNiG at times of release of interim reports,  based on management data. The Group’s ability to meet the forecast targets will be reviewed and any necessary revisions will be made in the same manner. The review will be based on actual results delivered in particular ended periods, taking into account seasonal fluctuations in financial performance throughout the year and the Group’s risk factors.

As the fulfilment of this forecast depends on a number of variables, actual results may differ from the projections. Certain factors, such as gas prices on the exchange and per-barrel prices of Brent crude, are beyond the Company’s control. In the event of any material deviations from the financial forecast, PGNiG will adjust its projections and publish the amended guidance. No such publication will be made, however, if the variances do not cause any significant changes to the forecast.