Financial and Production Guidance

The production forecast covers:
  1. natural gas production forecast;
  2. crude oil production forecast.

With a view to enhancing stakeholder communication, the Management Board of PGNiG SA presents a financial forecast based on the business plans of PGNiG Group companies and operating assumptions.

The natural gas production forecast for 2016–2018, converted to high-methane gas with a calorific value of 39.5 MJ/m3 (in billion m3)

  2016 Forecast 2016 Execution 2017 Forecast 2018 Forecast
Poland 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8
Foreign markets, including: 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8

Norway

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Pakistan

0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Total 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6

*revision published in Current Report No. 98/2016

In Pakistan, production from the Rizq field is scheduled to be launched in the coming years, and a new well should be brought on stream on the Rehman field. Additional wells will also be drilled in the coming years to increase production.

The projected volume of gas production in Poland, measured in natural units, remains practically unchanged relative to the original forecast. The forecast of natural gas production in Pakistan in 2018 has been changed following a revision of the schedule for brining new wells on stream.

Crude oil production forecast, including condensate and NGL, for 2016–2018 (‘000 tonnes)

  2016 Forecast 2016 Execution 2017 Forecast 2018 Forecast
Poland 757 764 745 840
Foreign markets, including: 549 555 571 579

Norway

549 555 571 579
Total 1,306 1319 1,316 1,419

*revision published in Current Report No. 98/2016

The production of crude oil and condensate in Poland should remain at a stable, high level and will be increased further in 2018 following the tie-in of new wells.
As for Norway, the main reasons behind the revision of the hydrocarbon production forecast for 2016–2018 include the stepping up of production from the Skarv and Morvin fields, as well as the proving up and development of additional reserves from one of the Vilje project wells.

The data presented above does not include production from the fields planned to be acquired under the PGNiG Group Strategy for 2014–2022.

> Current Report No.98/2016 - Natural gas and crude oil production forecast for 2016–2018 - update

> Current Report No.34/2016 - Natural gas and crude oil production forecast for 2016–2018 - update

The financial forecast covers:

  1. Consolidated revenue of the PGNiG Group;
  2. Consolidated EBITDA of the PGNiG Group;
  3. Debt/EBIDTA ratio of the PGNiG Group.
 
GK PGNiG 2015 Guidance [PLNbn]* Execution 2015 [PLNbn] Execution [%]
Revenue 37.1 36.5 98%
EBITDA 6.3 6.1 97%

* updated on November 6th 2015 Current Report 81/2015

 

> Current Report No. 10/2016

> Current Report No. 81/2015

> Current Report No. 9/2015

 

GK PGNiG 2014 Guidance [PLNbn] 2014 Execution[PLNbn] Execution [%]
Revenue 32.7 34.3 105%
EBITDA 5.9 6.3 108%


> Current Report No. 24/2014
 

Debt/EBITDA Guidance Execution
2015 < 2.0 1.0
2014 < 2.0 0.9
 

The EBITDA forecast will be monitored by PGNiG at times of release of interim reports,  based on management data. The Group’s ability to meet the forecast targets will be reviewed and any necessary revisions will be made in the same manner. The review will be based on actual results delivered in particular ended periods, taking into account seasonal fluctuations in financial performance throughout the year and the Group’s risk factors.

As the fulfilment of this forecast depends on a number of variables, actual results may differ from the projections. Certain factors, such as gas prices on the exchange and per-barrel prices of Brent crude, are beyond the Company’s control. In the event of any material deviations from the financial forecast, PGNiG will adjust its projections and publish the amended guidance. No such publication will be made, however, if the variances do not cause any significant changes to the forecast.